The Overnight Shift

Spot rates are jumping across the country, but not for the reason you'd expect.

Freight volumes are low and spot rates are increasing in the majority of regions throughout the country. Carriers are also seeing big rate increases almost overnight. Why? New federal rules announced on September 26, 2025, are cutting thousands of non-domiciled drivers out of the workforce. That's shrinking the number of available trucks and creating problems across the supply chain.

This article explains what's happening, why it matters, and what drivers can do to stay profitable.

The Policy Background

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) created the non-domiciled CDL category in the early 2000s. It gave foreign nationals with work authorization a legal way to drive trucks commercially. The goal was simple: help fix a perceived driver shortage while keeping safety standards in place.

Over 20 years, non-domiciled drivers became a meaningful part of the industry representing nearly 200,000 drivers country-wide.

Then in late September, DOT Secretary Sean Duffy announced an emergency action to drastically limit who can get non-domiciled CDLs. The change took effect immediately. FMCSA audits found major problems with how states were issuing these licenses. California alone had over 15,000 CDLs that were issued incorrectly. Colorado, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, and Washington also had serious compliance issues.

FMCSA estimates that 194,000 current non-domiciled CDL holders won't qualify under the new requirements within two years.

Old Rules vs. New Rules

Under the old system, carriers could hire non-domiciled drivers pretty easily. Various non-citizen workers with Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) could get CDLs, and each state handled renewals differently.

The new rules are much stricter:

• Fewer people qualify: Only H-2B, H-2A, and E-2 visa holders can now get non-domiciled CDLs

• Yearly in-person renewals required: No more multi-year licenses or renewing by mail

• Federal verification is mandatory: All applications must go through the DHS SAVE system

• Shorter license periods: Licenses now expire when work authorization ends or after one year, whichever comes first

The government wants to close loopholes and stop fraudulent CDLs. But the immediate result is fewer drivers on the road.

Market Impact Analysis

The bottom line: rates are going up not because there's more freight, but because there are fewer drivers available to hit the road. 

Current non-domiciled CDL holders who don't meet the new rules aren't losing their licenses right away. Instead, they'll be phased out slowly as their licenses expire over the next two years. That might sound like a gradual change, but the market is already feeling it.

What the Two-Year Phase-Out Means

1. Capacity shrinks to a new norm

As licenses expire one by one, the number of available drivers steadily drops. This is especially hard on fleets that rely heavily on non-domiciled drivers. The result: fewer trucks on the road, which pushes spot rates up fast. Once everyone adjusts to the new rules, the market might become more predictable with better data on how many trucks are actually available. Smaller carriers that adapt quickly could win business as competitors who can't stay compliant drop out.

2. Insurance and lenders react fast

Some insurance companies are reportedly refusing to cover carriers with non-domiciled drivers—even before their licenses expire. Banks and factoring companies are also getting stricter about compliance. This means some carriers lose access to insurance and financing immediately, taking trucks off the road even if they're still legal to drive.

3. Rate pressure accelerates over time

As the driver pool shrinks and freight demand stays steady, shippers have to compete for fewer trucks. Usually, spot rates go up first, then contract rates follow in the next cycle. We're already seeing this pattern start.

4. Non-domiciled drivers at a disadvantage

Drivers whose licenses expire later might have fewer job opportunities or face a tougher renewal process. Some may decide to leave trucking early instead of dealing with the stress of trying to renew under the new system.

5. Possible safety improvements

FMCSA says the goal is better oversight and stopping fake CDLs from getting into the system. Long-term, stricter standards could mean safer roads and less legal risk for carriers who only hire fully qualified drivers.

What Drivers Should Do Now

Whether you're a non-domiciled driver navigating these changes or a U.S.-domiciled driver preparing for market shifts, here's a checklist of action items to consider:

For Non-Domiciled Drivers:

☐ Check your visa status: Do you hold an H-2B, H-2A, or E-2 visa? If not, you won't qualify for renewal under the new rules

☐ Know your expiration date: Mark when your current CDL expires and start planning now. Don't wait until the last minute!

☐ Gather your documents: Start collecting everything you'll need for in-person renewal: work authorization papers, proof of legal presence, all federal verification requirements

☐ Talk to your employer: Ask if they'll support you through the renewal process or if they have compliance resources

☐ Consider your options: If you won't qualify for renewal, start exploring alternative career paths or ways to become eligible

For All Drivers:

☐ Know your numbers: Calculate your true cost per mile so you know what rates you need to stay profitable (use a CPM calculator if you don't have one)

☐ Track the market: Keep an eye on spot rates in your lanes—if capacity keeps tightening, you may have more negotiating power

☐ Stay compliant: Make sure all your own credentials, endorsements, and documentation are up to date

☐ Build your network: Strong broker and shipper relationships matter more when the market gets volatile

☐ Plan financially: Markets are cyclical. If you're seeing better rates today, consider saving extra for future leaner times 

What Comes Next

The 2025 FMCSA rule is a major shift for trucking. Over the next two years, thousands of non-domiciled drivers will be phased out, changing the driver pool and tightening capacity in ways we're only starting to see.

For drivers, this means volatility, but also opportunity. Those who run lean, stay safe, and keep transparent operations will be in the best position to handle the transition. Those who ignore compliance risks or don't adapt may get priced out or lose their insurance.

For independent drivers and small fleets, being prepared is everything. As capacity tightens and competition shifts, the margin for error gets smaller. You need to book smarter loads, control your operating costs, and make data-driven decisions faster than ever.

That's where the right tools make all the difference. TruckSmarter gives you access to a free load board and powerful dispatch software designed for exactly this moment—when efficiency and informed choices separate drivers who thrive from those who just survive. Ready to take control? Sign up now and start a free 30-day trial of Dispatch. Make every mile count.